The effect of COVID-19 on public transit revenues in the City of Calgary

Résumé

Using monthly public transit revenue data and a difference-in-differences strategy, we investigate the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic on public transit revenues in the large urban municipality of Calgary in Alberta, Canada. We find that COVID had the largest (statistically significant) impact on adult transit fare revenue, a smaller impact on youth fares, and almost no impact on low-income fares suggesting that youth and low-income transit pass users were less able to substitute away from or forgo public transit during the COVID shock, unlike adults. Reductions in transit services that occurred at the same time were more likely borne by youth and low-income transit users. To minimize service reductions and their inequitable effects, we argue that given municipalities have little financial power and flexibility, higher orders of government should provide transit operating funding during times of transit fare shocks.